Why Risk is so surprising

No matter what you do and how structured your plan is you will always be surprised. Most of the time, when someone’s caught unprepared, it’s not because they did not plan. Sometimes it’s the smartest planners, in the world, working tirelessly, mapping every scenario they can imagine, who end up failing. They planned for everything that made sense before getting hit by something they had never imagined.

In our previous video we spoke about how hard prediction is, but here is the twist, we are good at predicting the future, except for surprises- which tend to be all that matter.

The biggest risk is always what no one sees coming, because if no one sees it coming, no one’s prepared for it; and if no one’s prepared for it, its damage will be amplified when it arrives.