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Uncle Sam & IRS Debt - Local Records Office
11 Views • Dec 21, 2015
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World leaders are caught in a trap: More debt in the form of government and private spending is needed to stimulate today's sluggish economies. Yet the higher the debt, the greater the danger that a pullback by creditors will trigger another financial crisis like the one in 2008.
"The post-crisis world is a world of high debt, and it doesn't take much. It just takes a bad shock for the debt dynamics to go wrong," warned Olivier Blanchard.
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"We have to be ready to see other episodes of this kind," he said, referring to the recent Greek default that shut down the country's banks and intensified fears of a Eurozone breakup until a new bailout was negotiated.
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Europe has largely slashed spending to get a control on government budgets, but the result so far has been minimal growth and high unemployment in Greece and some other countries.
The second approach, adopted by the U.S. and China, pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into all kinds of public projects. But growth in these economies, while better, has hardly been spectacular.
Meanwhile, central banks around the world have cut interest rates and issued unprecedented amounts of bonds to spur borrowing and spending.
The result is that by the middle of last year, total global debt — government, corporate, and household — reached $199 trillion, an increase of $57 trillion from the end of 2007, according to McKinsey Global Institute. That's about $27,500 for every person on the planet.
The rising leverage, particularly in developed economies, is all the more striking given the extensive fiscal belt-tightening, write-offs by creditors, and stricter lending conditions imposed since 2008.
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So despite its inability as yet to pull out of its long economic doldrums, the Japanese government isn't operating in fear that investors will suddenly get nervous and run for the exits.
The U.S. debt picture looks stable, at least for now. Though public debt as a share of GDP rose to 89% last year, the government's budget deficit has been shrinking and is now at a seven-year low, thanks largely to the continuous job and economic growth.
U.S. banks and other corporate balance sheets are the strongest they've been in years. And consumers aren't nearly as strained as before, in part, because of the foreclosures and write-offs of the last decade. Household debt-service — the share of after-tax incomes needed to pay interest and principal — is now down to the levels of the 1980s.
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