How to predict rogue waves | The Economist

Rogue waves can damage and even sink vessels. Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have come up with an algorithm that predicts when they are about to strike

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Sailors and fishermen spend days, sometimes weeks, at sea often battling stormy weather. Dangerous conditions can threaten their crafts upon which they depend for survival.

They are especially at risk of rogue waves. These 30 meter waves form when small waves merge together. They can damage and, sometimes, sink vessels.

Predicting when these avalanches of water strike has not been possible until now. Mechanical engineers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have come up with an algorithm that predicts where and when a rogue wave might strike. Their algorithm gives sailors a two to three minute warning before impact.

Waves within a group have the potential to share energy through a process called modulation instability. Essentially one wave grows at the expense of others, and all the group's power is concentrated into one big wave.

Ships do not typically carry the supercomputers required to monitor all waves in an area. Instead, the engineers at MIT have focused on analyzing small waves. Their algorithm analyzes the Seas behavior, wave heights, and their direction, which a new technology, similar to radar, has collected in real time. It then identifies groups of waves most likely to form a rogue wave.

The MIT algorithm is so thrifty that a ship's skipper can run it on a laptop. The distance at which the algorithm can detect waves depends on the capacity of the radar.

Most platform radars can detect waves up to two kilometers with sufficient reliability, and for those ships that cannot avoid rogue waves, the system does give crews enough time to batten down the hatches and brace for impact. Increasing their chances of survival.

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