How China’s Fighting Tariffs—Without a Trade War

As trade tensions resurface and tariff proposals gain traction in U.S. politics, China is responding with a domestic policy pivot focused on targeted credit growth.

In the first quarter of 2025, Chinese banks issued 9.78 trillion yuan in new loans—around $1.36 trillion. While the total is historically high, the more important story is in the composition of the lending. New credit is being directed into core sectors of the real economy: lending to small and micro enterprises rose 12.2% year-on-year; long-term loans to the manufacturing sector increased by 9.3%; and consumer credit—particularly in housing—is gaining momentum. Interest rates remain near record lows, helping to sustain this push.

To support the expansion, the Ministry of Finance is issuing 5 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds to recapitalize major state-owned banks. Economists estimate this could unlock up to 40 trillion yuan in additional lending capacity.

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