Aussie PM: Time for a New World Order...

KEVIN RUDD has called for a new era of "social capitalism" in which the time has come to adapting to a 'new world order'.

Four scenarios about the possible state of the global financial system in 2020 presented to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos provide a useful background for strategic thinking about what Australia and its financial institutions need to do to be prepared for the More..future.

The scenarios were developed as part of a project to analyse the driving forces shaping the global financial system and how these forces might affect governance and industry structure.

The project was a partnership between the WEF, Oliver Wyman and 250 leading thinkers in global finance. It was overseen by a steering committee co-chaired by John Thain, the former president of global banking at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and David Rubenstein, co-founder and managing director of the Carlyle Group.

The scenario planning at workshops last year in Geneva, Kuala Lumpur, London, New York, Sharm El Sheikh and Tianjin encouraged participants to discuss extreme events, combinations of risk factors and the second and third-order consequences that may flow from these events and factors. It is this sort of scenario planning that should have been used by banks and regulators in the lead up to the sub-prime mortgages disaster.

The workshops identified about a 34 social, technological, environmental, political and economic uncertainties over the next 12 years. Two of these stood out above all others: the “degree of international coordination on financial policy” and the “pace of geo-economic power shifts”.

These were used as the vertical axis and horizontal axis for establishing a matrix of scenarios.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/fmISHome?OpenForm&is=Food+_+Beverages