5 Stocks Facing A Huge 2023

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At its peak in October 2021, MATCH traded at around 50 times Adjusted EBITDA. Fast forward to today, and that multiple, based on guidance, is only 14 times and the stock has dropped 70%

Much of that multiple compression can be attributed to a drastic cut in profit growth to only 5%. And an unofficial outlook puts revenue growth at only 5-10% for 2023. That’s a significant reduction in growth and some of Match’s legacy brands like Plenty of Fish appear to be in decline.

But Hinge is still growing and Match continues to drive margins over 70%.
Straddle pricing in the options market suggests a move of over 40% in 2023. So whatever happens, it looks like Match Group has a big year ahead.

2022 was a banner year for theme parks but Six Flags badly underperformed. A lot of this stems from a change in business strategy. New CEO Selim Bassoul said the parks had become day centers for teenagers.

Some customers have literally been making TikToks on how to live off the Six Flags dining pass. So Bassoul created a new premiumization strategy in which Six Flags gets fewer guests paying higher prices and in theory a better experience.

But customers, and employees, are up in arms about the changes with complaints flooding in. And with activist investor Land & Buildings entering the fray it's easy to see the potential for movement in Six Flags stock. This is a crucial year where Six Flags simply needs to show progress towards its goals.

When Shopify reported first quarter results in May last year the stock dropped 30%. But the stock has traded sideways since and that suggests the market hasn’t quite figured out what comes next.

After all, how many small and medium sized businesses on the Shopify platform are going to survive over the coming year? And can Shopify’s expansion into international markets take hold?

In Q3, Shopify discussed a merchant list that included Panasonic, Cole Haan, Converse and Greenies Pet Treats, hardly blue chip names.

And can Shopify really compete with Amazon, particularly on logistics? It’s a huge task but Shopify occupies a growing niche and a good brand.

Whatever happens it’s going to be a huge year for Shopify. The options market implies a move of more than 50% by January 2024 and that sounds about right.

THESE ARE PERSONAL OPINIONS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. I OWN SHARES IN SIX STOCK.

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